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PREVIEW-Petrobras profit seen up on fuel prices, output

Fri Aug 8, 2008 12:28pm EDT
 
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 *Petrobras earnings
 *Monday after market close at 1700 (2000 GMT)
 *Analysts see net profit up 18 percent on year
 *Dollar devaluation seen containing earnings
 By Denise Luna
 RIO DE JANEIRO, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Brazil's state-run oil
company Petrobras (PETR4.SA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz)(PBR.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) is expected to post an 18
percent gain in second quarter net earnings over a year ago due
to higher gasoline and diesel prices and increased oil output.
 Petrobras is due to release its quarterly results on Monday
sometime after the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange closes at 1700
local time (1600 EDT/2000 GMT).
 The company's earnings will likely be contained by the
continued depreciation of the dollar against the Brazilian real
BRBY over the quarter, according to six analysts surveyed by
Reuters.
 The appreciation of the real against the dollar decreases
the value of Petrobras assets abroad. The real has gained
almost 12 percent against the dollar so far in 2008, adding to
a 20 percent surge in 2007.
 A weak dollar also hurts the company's exports.
 Petrobras' net profits should reach 8 billion reais ($4.9
billion), up 18 percent from the 6.8 billion reais in the April
through June period a year ago, according to the average
estimated of six analysts. Estimates ranged from 7.4 billion
reais to 8.2 billion reais.
 Company revenues should increase by around 25 percent on
average, according to analysts, benefiting directly from the
increase in the price of oil and a jump in sales.
 "We estimate growth of 24.2 percent in net revenues against
the same quarter of 2007, due to the 90.4 percent increase in
international oil prices over the past year, as well as the
rise in (local) gasoline and diesel prices in May," said Nelson
Rodrigues de Matos, an analyst at BB Investimentos.
 Petrobras announced in May it would raise the price at the
refinery of gasoline and diesel by 10 and 15 percent,
respectively. Local fuel sales make up about 50 percent of the
company's earnings.
 Production of crude oil and natural gas over the second
quarter was also up 3.6 percent from the three month period a
year ago. Output averaged 2.386 million barrels a day of oil
equivalent over the quarter.
 The following table shows the average estimates of six
analysts for Petrobras' quarterly results. All figures are in
Brazilian reais.
           F'CAST 2008     2007       2008         CHANGE
            2ND QTR      2ND QTR     1ST QTR      YR ON YR
 Net revenue   52.3 bln     41.8 bln    46.9 bln     +25 pct
 EBITDA        16.0 bln     14.2 bln    13.8 bln     +13 pct
 EBITDA Margin 30.5 pct     33.9 pct    29.4 pct     -340 bps
 Net profit     8.0 bln      6.8 bln     6.9 bln     +18 pct
 ($1=1.615 reais)
 (Writing by Reese Ewing, editing by Phil Berlowitz)


 

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